Congressional attention to prediction markets continues to expand, with new House and Senate bills adding to a growing set of proposals that would reshape the legal and regulatory framework for event contracts.
Most recently, on March 25, 2026, Representatives Adrian Smith (R-NE) and Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) introduced the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act (the PREDICT Act),[1] while Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Representative Jaimie Raskin (D-MD) introduced the Stop Corrupt Bets Act on March 26.[2] Together, these measures reflect increasing congressional focus on market integrity in prediction markets, addressing insider trading, conflicts of interest, and permissible contract types.
The PREDICT Act would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children, the president and vice president, and certain political appointees from trading on prediction markets involving political events, policy decisions, and other government actions. The proposal targets conflicts of interest and the potential misuse of nonpublic information by individuals positioned to influence the outcome of a contract or access sensitive government information. Violations would result in civil penalties and profit disgorgement. At the state level, California Governor Gavin Newsom recently took similar action, issuing an executive order expanding existing bans to prohibit state officials and appointees from using insider information, or from assisting others in using such information, to profit from prediction markets.[3]
The Stop Corrupt Bets Act would prohibit certain categories of event contracts, including those tied to elections, war, and government activity, reflecting concerns that such markets are susceptible to manipulation and misuse. The legislation also clarifies that Congress did not intend the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) to permit markets lacking a commercial hedging purpose and directs the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to prevent such markets as a form of federal gambling. It further calls for a federal review of prediction market risks and would return authority over gambling to the states, allowing them to permit and regulate such activity or prohibit it under state law. The legislation is co-sponsored by Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI).
These bills build on an increasingly active legislative landscape. As we noted in our earlier alert, the bipartisan Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, introduced by Senators Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) on March 23, 2026, would amend the CEA to bar CFTC-registered entities from listing sports-related or casino-style event contracts.[4] Other proposals, including the DEATH BETS Act,[5] and the BETS OFF Act,[6] focus on restricting particular categories of contracts or participants, such as those involving terrorism, war, death, or government actions. By contrast, the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act would take a more comprehensive approach, establishing federal safeguards addressing insider trading, market manipulation, underage participation, artificial intelligence-related risks, and consumer protection, while also returning certain oversight authority to the states.[7]
This expanding set of proposals suggests that Congress is pursuing parallel strategies in regulating prediction markets, ranging from targeted prohibitions on specific contracts or participants to broader efforts to establish comprehensive regulatory standards. For market participants, the result is an increasingly complex and evolving framework that may reshape both who can participate in these markets and the types of contracts that may be offered.
Venable's Investigations and White Collar Defense Group is actively monitoring developments in the regulation of prediction markets and will continue to provide updates on key litigation, enforcement, and legislative activity.
[1] Press Release, Rep. Adrian Smith, Smith, Budzinski Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Ban Members of Congress, Federal Officials from Prediction Market Trading (Mar. 25, 2026).
[2] Press Release, Sen. Jeff Merkley, New Merkley, Raskin Legislation Bans Gambling on Elections, Sports, War, and Government Activity (Mar. 26, 2026).
[3] Press Release, Office of Governor Gavin Newsom, Governor Newsom Strengthens Bans on Insider Betting by State Officials (Mar. 27, 2026).
[4] Press Release, Sen. John Curtis, Curtis, Schiff Introduce Bipartisan Legislation to Ban Sports Prediction Market Contracts (Mar. 23, 2026).
[5] Press Release, Rep. Mike Levin, Rep. Levin & Sen. Schiff Introduce New Bicameral Legislation to Explicitly Ban Death & War Prediction Contracts (Mar. 10, 2026).
[6] Press Release, Sen. Chris Murphy, Murphy, Casar Introduce Bicameral Bill To Ban Prediction Markets On Government Actions, War, and Events Ripe For Rigging (Mar. 17, 2026); Press Release, Rep. Gabe Amo, Amo, Murphy, Casar, Ansari Introduce Bicameral Bill To Ban Prediction Markets from Enabling Officials to Bet On and Profit Off War (Mar. 18, 2026).
[7] Press Release, Sen. Richard Blumenthal, Blumenthal Introduces New Legislation to Regulate Prediction Markets (Mar. 11, 2026).