As we look ahead to the new year and the many changes it will bring, the Venable International Trade and Logistics Group will be issuing a series of brief client alerts previewing key trade areas and issues to watch in 2025. With the new presidential administration preparing to assume office in just a few short weeks, we expect significant changes to the U.S. government's global trade policies, including sanctions, tariffs, CFIUS, and everything in between. Drawing from the trade policies and practices of the first Trump administration, more recent developments during the outgoing Biden administration, and signals from President-elect Trump's campaigning and recent Cabinet-level nominations, this series will explore six key trade-related areas and how they may develop over the next year. Topics for the series will be:
- Economic Sanctions. While Trump has shown a clear intention to use tariffs for pursuing national security and foreign policy goals in his second term, the administration will also likely continue to utilize economic sanctions as a critical strategic tool for advancing U.S. policy objectives. With Trump at the helm, will the federal government's approach to sanctions evolve toward taking more unilateral measures over coordinating with traditional allies? And might the focus of the sanctions change?
- Customs Enforcement. 2025 will be an important year for the development and enforcement of U.S. customs laws. President Biden has already drawn significant attention to de minimis reform during the past year, but any major changes won't materialize until the new Congress and president are sworn in. In addition, as we will explore, forced labor issues—particularly those addressed by the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA)—will continue to be an active area of focus for both the legislative and executive branches.
- CFIUS (and Related Trade Considerations for M&A). We expect the Trump administration will continue to aggressively leverage the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to scrutinize and, in many cases, mitigate or block foreign investments that have the potential to raise national security concerns. Recent administrations have been laser-focused on proposed deals involving countries of concern like China and Russia. We will discuss why this approach will not go away any time soon, as well as other trade factors to be taken into consideration when assessing M&A deals in 2025.
- FMC and Ocean Transportation. In 2025, the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) will see the departure of one commissioner and likely welcome another to fill the seat. We will explore why enforcement and the charge complaint process will remain front and center at the agency. Additionally, between potential strikes at East Coast and Gulf State ports and a perennial reignition of the debate over the Jones Act (1920) governing coastwise transportation of cargo, eyes will remain fixed on labor.
- Export Controls Enforcement. The United States' export controls on sensitive technologies will likely continue to tighten, especially with respect to transactions with China and other strategic competitors of the United States. We will explore how these changes will encompass not only semiconductors (i.e., chips) but also other sensitive technologies worth monitoring over the next year.
- Tariffs and Trade Policy. In light of Trump's rhetoric on the campaign trail, it is no surprise that we will see tariffs playing a central role in 2025. U.S. importers can expect new tariffs to be implemented and affect their bottom line. However, as we will discuss, the form and scope of such tariffs remain to be seen, with so many competing interests at play.
We will unpack additional areas of U.S. trade policy to watch in 2025, as the world appears poised to move toward more rather than fewer global trade restrictions. We hope you will follow along in the new year when we examine the potential impact of these important trade matters on the industry in 2025 and beyond. Please stay tuned.