Trump's Second Term: What's Ahead for Nine Key Sectors?

The Outlook

Under the Trump administration, there will likely be notable changes to antitrust enforcement, but some themes would persist. Trump will likely take a more friendly view toward merger enforcement. A Trump-appointed Federal Trade Commission (FTC) commissioner, for example, recently said she would consider repealing the Biden administration's 2023 Merger Guidelines and criticized the practice of asking global counterparts to take action against mergers. The Trump administration will also likely either repeal the FTC's rule banning employee non-compete provisions or drop the appeals finding that the rule was unlawful. At the same time, the monopoly case against Google was filed during the first Trump administration, and many of the FTC investigations against the tech industry began in the Trump administration. We would expect a second Trump administration to continue these enforcement efforts.

The Players

Practically every business will be impacted by changes in antitrust enforcement. The key players who will impact these changes will include the assistant attorney general for the Antitrust Division and the five commissioners of the FTC, in particular the chair of the FTC, who is appointed by the president. The commission of the current chair, Lina Khan, expired on September 26, 2024, but under the FTC Act she may remain a commissioner until a replacement is appointed and confirmed, and she may remain as chair until the president names a new chair.

The Outlook

If Republicans, who won the Senate Tuesday, also take the House of Representatives, President-elect Trump will pursue regulatory and legislative reforms aimed at reversing the climate- and electrification-focused initiatives of the Biden administration. Specifically, the Trump administration will aim to reverse fuel economy regulations, implement industrial policy for domestic manufacturing, and repeal funding and tax credits for electric vehicles and green energy.

The Issues

Reverse Fuel Economy Regulations

The Trump administration is expected to take executive action to repeal fuel economy regulations for both light- and heavy-duty vehicles. Trump has promised to end requirements for electrification included in the Biden administration's emissions regulations.

Implement Industrial Policy for Domestic Manufacturing

Trump has pledged to reduce the corporate tax rate further for companies that manufacture goods in America. Specifically, he has promised to reduce the current 21% corporate tax rate to 15% for companies manufacturing goods in the United States. Trump has also said he will implement a broad tariff structure for companies importing goods into the U.S., particularly for automotive imports from Mexico.

Repeal Funding and Tax Credits for Electric Vehicles and Green Energy

Trump has been critical of funding for electric vehicle charging infrastructure and technologies such as wind and solar energy. With the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expiring in 2025, Republicans will have an opportunity to alter or repeal credits created by the Inflation Reduction Act if they have a unified government. Republicans would also be able to alter or repeal the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program (NEVI) and the Charging and Fueling Infrastructure Program (CFI).

The Outlook

President-elect Trump campaigned on boosting American energy production ("drill, baby, drill") and lowering the cost of energy to consumers and industry. Expect his administration—via executive action and working with a GOP Congress—to enable expanded domestic energy production and exports. Environmental concerns will take a back seat to energy production. Renewable and lower carbon energy sources will remain part of the U.S. energy landscape; however, their growth curves will shift as attention remains focused on more traditional fossil fuels. One area to watch is how Trump's second term will address continued market demand for cleaner energy from some industries (e.g., technology companies and some global companies seeking to meet international commitments).

The Issues

Boosting Domestic Energy

Trump's administration will focus on actions to increase domestic production of energy from multiple sources, including oil, natural gas, nuclear, and perhaps hydropower. Trump has criticized wind and solar energy. Oil and natural gas production volumes under the Biden administration have remained at or above those seen during Trump's previous term, so expect a renewed focus on expanding access to federal lands both onshore and offshore to take advantage of additional reserves.

Expanding domestic pipelines will again be a priority, as may projects to bring Canadian resources south. Domestic mines—including those that can supply copper, lithium, cobalt, and rare-earth minerals—will see renewed attention to help supply raw materials needed for energy, defense, and technology applications. Coal production—increasingly for export markets—will be supported. Trump has also indicated that he will reverse the Biden administration's policy pertaining to liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. This is likely to be one of his first actions, and he will certainly highlight bipartisan support for the issue.

Less Regulation

Expect Trump to move quickly to speed permitting of new energy projects and streamline regulation of existing projects. Anticipate moves to reverse the EPA's recent powerplant greenhouse gas rules. Trump will appoint regulators who are pro-energy development; expect them to revise federal regulations and approve projects quickly.

There will be a focus on reforming the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) permitting process to streamline federal reviews for all sectors of the economy, including at our international borders. Efforts will likely be made to limit the scope of environmental review under NEPA to reasonably foreseeable and economically feasible impacts, set deadlines for completion of NEPA reviews at one year for environmental assessments and two years for environmental impact statements, impose a 120-day deadline on filing litigation on final agency actions concerning energy and mining projects, and require that certain low-impact activities and activities in previously studied areas on public lands are not major federal actions under NEPA.

Electric Grid

Robust and increasing electricity demand will create an opportunity for Trump to address both the generation of electricity and its transmission. Extending the life of existing power plants and enabling the timely development of new facilities, while also strengthening and growing the electric transmission system, will be a priority. Overcoming historical bipartisan and/or regional opposition to some new power plants and large transmission lines, combined with the power of states to determine many local decisions, will be a challenge for the Trump administration.

Future of IRA Programs

Energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) were heavily skewed against fossil fuels and toward reducing greenhouse gases. Expect Trump to encourage Congress to strike some of the IRA, while his administration freezes most of the IRA funds that have yet to be committed. However, some IRA provisions—such as the tax credit for nuclear power, or the credit for domestic manufacture of some clean energy technologies—have GOP support, and undoing those will be a challenge. Federal support for provisions designed purely to address climate change may wind up on the chopping block.

The Players

Every company that produces, transports, trades, or consumes energy will be impacted by the new administration. The key administration players will be the White House, Congress, and various federal agencies, including the Department of Energy, the Department of Treasury, the Department of Interior, the Department of Agriculture, and numerous independent agencies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Key energy company players will vary by sector but will certainly include the oil and gas companies that backed the Trump campaign.

The Outlook

President-elect Trump's first term provides a clear window into how environmental and natural resources law will be impacted in a second term. We emphasize the following three categories:

The Issues

Deregulation

Revising or repealing regulations was the main priority of the Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), the Department of the Interior (DOI), and other agencies touching on environmental issues during Trump's first term. Those efforts were met with mixed results. Many proposals were challenged and invalidated in court. Other proposals lingered inside the agencies for so long that they were not finalized before January 2021 or could not be implemented before a change in administrations.

We are confident that a second Trump administration will be better prepared to overcome legal and administrative obstacles facing its regulatory agenda. While "blue state" attorneys general and environmental NGOs would likely challenge virtually all major deregulatory actions, we also expect Trump's team to be mindful of strengthening the legal justification for those actions. This will be especially important in the post-Chevron world of no deference to agency interpretation of statutory authority. In addition, even allowing for mandatory public comment and review, we expect regulatory actions to be taken at an unprecedented pace. Federal courts, especially the D.C. Circuit, will face an avalanche of administrative litigation.

Policy Reversals

Among the many key environmental policies likely to be substantially revised, we highlight the following:

Federal renewable energy programs will grind to a halt. Expect the DOI to delay or review virtually all proposals for offshore wind development and solar programs on federal lands. Conversely, liquified natural gas (LNG) permit applications will be reviewed and approved quickly, reversing the recent Biden administration "pause." Offshore oil and gas leasing programs will be reinvigorated, as will coal leasing programs across the country.

Agency efforts to promote environmental justice will cease, beginning with rescinding multiple Biden executive orders promoting those interests. Programs such as the "Justice 40" initiative regarding federal investments in disadvantageous communities will be halted. USEPA's newly instituted environmental justice office will likely be reorganized or closed.

Federal policy and related actions addressing climate change will be dramatically revised. We expect a major change in focus from planning for and encouraging reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to adaptation and resilience activities.

And while we expect potentially dozens of other major environmental policy reversals, the most obvious ones might be the Army Corps and USEPA taking an aggressive interpretation of "waters of the United States" consistent with the new administration's interpretation of the 2023 Sackett v. United States ruling and a more cautious federal approach to addressing alleged per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) contamination.

Administrative Reorganization

President Trump's team has a clearly stated goal to restructure the federal bureaucracy. To this end, the new Trump administration will have broad discretion to shrink the size of federal environmental and natural resources agencies and to substantially reorganize existing staff, including the Senior Executive Service, to align with its policy initiatives. The full extent of these efforts and the potential impacts of staffing reductions and reorganization may not be felt immediately, but they will be felt.

The Outlook

President-elect Donald Trump's win signals a deregulatory shift in the consumer financial services landscape, with an emphasis on reducing regulatory burdens on businesses. His administration could prioritize rolling back certain regulations and limiting the scope of agencies like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), similar to efforts seen during his previous term. This approach would foster a more business-friendly environment, encouraging innovation and M&A in financial services, particularly for fintech and emerging digital finance sectors.

However, the potential reduction in federal oversight could lead to increased action at the state level, as states with strong consumer protection agendas may step in to fill perceived gaps in federal regulation. This could foster a continued fragmented regulatory environment, with certain states, such as California and New York, adopting more aggressive enforcement and consumer protection measures in areas like debt collection, small dollar lending, and credit reporting. These states might expand the role of their own financial regulatory bodies, emphasizing state-level oversight and leading to greater variance in compliance standards across the country.

The Issues

Capital Rules

We expect that the Basel Rules will be held up and eventually reproposed with significant industry friendly changes. We have no indication of additional deregulatory efforts such as new rules ushered in by S. 2155, but we would expect financial institutions to have a significantly greater voice within the regulatory agencies.

SEC

We anticipate a significant shift in direction at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC under Trump will work with the Republican Senate to move legislation and rulemakings to provide clarity to crypto issuers and exchanges. We expect any SEC rules not finalized to be put on hold, withdrawn, or reproposed if absolutely necessary. The SEC will be the starkest change between the two administrations.

For financial services providers, a Trump presidency could mean fewer regulatory constraints at the federal level, but a more complex patchwork of state regulations. Companies operating nationally may need to adopt a nuanced approach, balancing relaxed federal oversight with potentially heightened state requirements. This environment may demand flexibility and strategic compliance planning to navigate both pro-business federal policies and stringent state-level consumer protections.

The Outlook

A second Trump presidency will likely bring a range of efforts seeking to address unfinished business from his first administration and implement policy proposals put forth by allies. Trump is likely to use regulation, personnel, and executive authority to reform and/or weaken federal health programs and agencies. He may also resume efforts to reduce the cost of prescription drugs, and his plans for reproductive health care policy remain unclear.

Expected "carry-over" items from his first administration include imposing work requirements for individuals on Medicaid; reducing overall Medicaid expenditures by block granting the program as well as limiting supplemental payments; and reversing a range of Biden administration policies that unraveled his approach to health care coverage, such as short-term, limited duration insurance and association health plans and Medicare payment for breakthrough devices.

Many of the changes he may seek likely will require congressional action, such as repealing parts of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) or the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA); depending on the final election outcome, he may not have the votes to secure congressional enactment of his health care agenda but he is expected to maximize executive authority to reduce the scope of agencies like the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the National Institutes of Health (NIH).

Trump has not enumerated specific plans for the future of the ACA, but his campaign has suggested allowing insurers to divide enrollees into different risk pools, which may lead to consideration of pre-existing conditions into the cost of health insurance. During consideration of the IRA, Republicans proposed scaling back ACA subsidies and will likely have a willing partner in President-elect Trump.

Following the lead of his first term, a second Trump administration is expected to expand Medicare Advantage-friendly policies. His campaign has not specifically discussed how drug prices will be addressed other than seeking to repeal the Medicare drug negotiating provisions in the IRA. Based on his signature drug pricing proposal from his first term, we expect to see renewed proposals to bolster drug reimportation, address drug rebate amounts, and crack down on pharmacy benefit managers. If the IRA is not repealed, it is anticipated that a second Trump administration would provide more transparency with respect to Medicare drug negotiations.

We expect a second Trump administration to review and reprioritize the country's public health agencies in reaction to criticisms of how agencies such as the CDC and NIH handled COVID-19, as well as a rising movement to examine ultra-processed foods, environmental factors, and the pharmaceutical industry for impact on chronic disease brought forth by allies such as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

The Players

The insurance industry, pharmaceutical drug companies, health care providers, hospitals and health systems, pharmacy benefit management companies, medical device companies, patient advocacy organizations, and others in health care will all be watching closely and trying to influence the Trump administration's policies. It is unclear how many of Trump's first administration appointees will return, and how others like RFK, Jr. could influence policies from a non-Senate confirmable position in the White House.

The Outlook

During his prior administration, President-elect Trump passed a number of business-friendly policies. We will likely see fewer regulations and easier compliance for employers in the following areas:

The Issues

Tips

While workers currently have to pay individual income taxes and payroll taxes on their tips, Trump has proposed eliminating federal income taxes on tips.

Overtime

During his campaign, Trump called for making overtime wages tax-free. He is also likely to attempt to roll back the Biden Department of Labor's overtime rule, which expands overtime coverage to more employees. During his first term, Trump's DOL passed a rule with more limited coverage, and he may try to return to that policy.

Health Insurance

Trump tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in his first term as president but failed. This go-around, he has continued to call for the ACA to be repealed.

Unions

On the campaign trail, Trump has said that he would veto the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which would prevent employers from interfering with union elections, allow the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to further penalize companies that violate labor laws, and protect striking workers by expediting their reinstatement to work.

The Players

The Trump 2025 agenda may look similar to the agenda he set while president from 2017-2021. He continues to express support for Right to Work Laws, which allow workers to opt out of paying union dues. As president, he also made it more difficult for federal employees to unionize and made business-friendly appointments in various agencies, including the Department of Labor and National Labor Relations Board (NLRB).

As he did during his first term, Trump may make business-friendly, labor-skeptical appointments within federal agencies like the Department of Labor, NLRB, and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC).

During the Trump administration, we will likely see these agencies rolling back policies and initiatives that were advanced by the more worker-friendly Biden administration.

The Outlook

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was one of President-elect Trump's signature legislative achievements in his first term. Key features of the TCJA include a reduction in tax rates for individuals, a doubling of the standard deduction, more generous estate and gift tax exemption, and a significant cut in the corporate tax rate. To avoid a potential filibuster in the Senate, the TCJA utilized a special budgetary process (commonly referred to as the "reconciliation process"). This process has its own limitations – the consequence being that many of the TCJA provisions expire on December 31, 2025. The expiration of the TCJA is projected to increase taxes by approximately $4.6 trillion (over a 10-year period). Trump, along with congressional Republicans, is committed to extending (and perhaps enhancing) the TCJA and avoiding the significant tax increase that would automatically result if the TCJA were allowed to expire.

Similar to when the TCJA was enacted in 2017, the special reconciliation process is the only realistic legislative path for an extension of the TCJA. Having captured control of the Senate, the focus shifts to the House of Representatives – and the roughly 20 House races that have yet to be called. It may take several days (and possibly a few weeks) before we definitively know who controls the House of Representatives (and with it, the fate of the TCJA).

The Issues

Tariffs and Unusual Trade Tools

A trade policy under the second Trump administration will continue the president-elect's first term's use of a wider and more diverse box of trade tools than almost any other president in modern history.

During his first administration, Trump implemented a range of trade measures under several disused executive tariff authorities. Trump instituted Safeguard Tariffs on solar cells, solar modules, washing machines, and washing machine parts and National Security Tariffs on aluminum and steel, in addition to imposing tariffs on a huge collection of goods from China beginning in 2018—the so-called Section 301 tariffs, which have carried over into the Biden administration.

Until Trump's first term as president, certain executive tariff authorities, such as Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, had not been used since 2003 and 2001, respectively. The first Trump administration tariffed approximately $380 billion in goods in 2018 and 2019. Since announcing his 2024 campaign, Trump has made expansive claims about new tariffs for his second term. This includes a 25% to 75% tariff on goods from Mexico in response to Mexico's response to undocumented immigration, a 100% tariff on all cars from Mexico, a "more than" 60% tariff on all goods from China, and an overall 10% to 20% tariff on everything else that the U.S. imports.

Additionally, he has threatened tariffs under a national emergency authority typically used to impose economic sanctions, and that has never been used as a basis for trade tariffs. Average tariffs under the second Trump administration are expected to rise at least to Second World War levels, or possibly to levels not seen since the 1870s. To accomplish this, Trump and his policy advisors have also floated the idea of renewing long-unused trade authorities, such as the Section 122 Balance of Payments Authority of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930.

Multilateral Institutions and International Partners

The foreseeable consequence is that the U.S.'s trade posture will become decidedly less multilateral under a second Trump administration.

Under Biden, the U.S. has strengthened multilateral ties with allies in Europe and Asia, for example, to coordinate and better counteract the restrictive trade practices of China while advocating for U.S.-friendly changes.

Trump and his trade policy team view multilateral institutions as a waste of money and mere political showmanship from which the U.S. has not benefited. Ultimately this view could culminate in Trump unilaterally revoking the United States' grant of Most Favored Nation (MFN) status to China.

Other secondary opportunities to coordinate trade activities with multilateral allies, such as those resulting from the U.S.'s leading involvement in strengthening NATO amidst Russia's invasion of Ukraine, may similarly fall by the wayside under a second Trump term.

The Players

A wide variety of industries and players are expected to be impacted by a second Trump presidency. In general, tariffs on goods from China, tariffs on goods in sectors seen as essential to US national and economic security (such as auto manufacturing, computer parts, extractive industries, and especially critical minerals), tariffs on goods from Mexico, and tariffs on products with which the U.S. has a particularly large trade deficit may be new targets.

While Trump's cabinet will likely differ significantly from his first administration, Peter Navarro, Larry Kudlow, and Robert Lighthizer have signaled a willingness to return to Trump's cabinet as trade and economic advisors.

Ultimately, Trump's trade policy is best characterized by its willingness to find creative trade tools and the element of unpredictability itself in support of its trade objectives. In addition, Trump's key trade advisors focus on returning manufacturing jobs that have left the U.S. in the last four decades.

Finally, it is worth noting that while courts have historically deferred to executive agencies in matters of national security—and for trade policy when mixed with national security concerns—courts would be increasingly hard-pressed to give this deference under a regime of such expansive trade action, coupled with new restrictions on courts' deference to administrative agencies under Loper Bright.